2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions

Yesterday I posted my first round playoff previews and predictions. Here are the direct links:

Eastern Conference:
New York Rangers vs Ottawa Senators
Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals
Florida Panthers vs. New Jersey Devils
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference:
Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings
St. Louis Blues vs San Jose Sharks
Phoenix Coyotes vs Chicago Blackhawks
Nashville Predators vs. Detroit Red Wings

For my Stanley Cup finals I will pick the Pittsburgh Penguins to defeat the Vancouver Canucks.

And if the Penguins and Canucks actually meet in the Stanley Cup Final, I think I will plan a 2 week backpacking trip and camp on mountain tops. I don't think I can handle another Canucks loss in the Stanley Cup Final.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers: Series Predictions

The most anticipated series of the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs has to Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia. The Battle of Pennsylvania will not disappoint. It will be a war of attrition. 

Assuming they remain healthy, I have to pick the Pittsburgh Penguins. They have two best players in the world on their team - likely Hart Trophy winner and Art Ross scoring champion Evgeni Malkin and the driven player of destiny Sidney Crosby. Those two - and Marc-Andre Fleury in net - will get the job done. They are the best team in the league, in my estimation. If Crosby is healthy, they are the favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

Here's the statistical breakdown. Click on the stats for larger imagery:

Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings: Series Prediction

Can the Jonathan Quick and the L.A. Kings knock off the Vancouver Canucks? What roles will Daniel Sedin and Jeff Carter play? Which Canucks team will show up? The one that everyone agrees is very good, or the team with the struggling power play and prone to defensive lapses?

Here's my full series breakdown, explaining why I will predict Vancouver to win, but L.A. to give them everything they can handle.

Here is the statistical breakdown (click for larger imaging).

Florida Panthers vs New Jersey Devils: Series Predictions

Has anyone picked the #3 seed Florida Panthers to defeat the #6 seed Florida Panthers? I didn't think so. And I'm not going to either. 

New Jersey has some good veterans who will ensure a first round victory. If they can get it done quickly, who knows, maybe the Devils can surprise in round 2, too.

Here's the statistical breakdown: Click on the stats for larger imagery:

Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals: Series Predictions

On one hand I should take Washington as an upset pick. I like Brayden Holtby as a netminder, and losing starters Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth could be the best thing for the Capitals. Could Holtby be another Ken Dryden? Or, for the purposes of round one, at least Steve Penney?

Salvaging their horrendous season by upsetting the Stanley Cup champs would be a great narrative. But let's face it - that is unlikely. The Boston Bruins are the better team, and will knock out the Capitals. But I do expect a big series from Alexander Ovechkin.

Here's the statistical breakdown. Click on the stats for larger imagery:

New York Rangers vs. Ottawa Senators: Series Predictions

The Ottawa Senators have been a wonderful story all season, far exceeding expectations and making the playoffs. Erik Karlsson and Jason Spezza have been joys to watch, and Milan Michalek is a great player. 

But Ottawa's run will come to an end against the top ranked New York Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist is too good and the Rangers commitment to defense is excellent. I'm not sure how far the Rangers can go in the 2012 playoffs, but they will get past Ottawa.

Here's the statistical breakdown. Click on the stats for larger imagery:

St. Louis Blues vs. San Jose Sharks: Series Predictions

It seems picking San Jose to upset St. Louis is a fashionable upset prediction this spring.

Hey, why not? The Sharks are relatively healthy, something that plagued them all season. They have the highest upside of the league's underdogs, and can salvage a forgettable season by knocking off the Blues.

But the Blues have been playing playoff hockey much of the season, including in 4 games against the Sharks, winning all 4. The Blues have the better goaltending, the better coach, and the best defenseman. I have quickly become a big fan of Alex Pietrangelo.

I will go with the Blues and will even suggest they could close the series quickly.

Here's the statistical breakdown. Click on the stats for larger imagery:

Phoenix Coyotes vs Chicago Blackhawks: Series Prediction

It would be no upset if #6 Chicago defeated #3 Phoenix. The Hawks are the better team, but they are missing their best player in Jonathan Toews. Meanwhile Phoenix has the better goalie, and play the perfect defensive game for playoffs success.

I do not have a great feel for this series, so I will go with the Blackhawks. They have found their game late in the season. If Corey Crawford can provide solid goaltending, and especially if Jonathan Toews can come back, the Hawks should be able to get the job done against the Coyotes.

And I say that with absolutely no certainty. This is one series that will probably be overlooked but will provide a dramatic narrative.

Here's the statistical breakdown. Click on the stats for larger imagery:

Nashville Predators vs Detroit Red Wings: Series Predictions

It is an absolute shame that one of these two powerhouses will be knocked out in round one. The perennial favourites vs the team built to win now.

I would never bet against a Mike Babcock coached team, and the Red Wings are the only team I trust to be able to flip the switch and turn it on come playoff time. But I really believe the Predators can win not only this series but the entire playoffs. Nashville as Stanley Cup champions? I can totally see that happening.

Here's the statistical breakdown. Click on the stats for larger imagery: