Yesterday we discussed how Pittsburgh is still really in trouble in this series. Today I have further evidence, evidence that suggests even if they take a 3-2 series lead in tonight's game 5 history still does not like their chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
According to WhoWins.com, the team that grabs the 3-2 series in the Stanley Cup finals has a likelihood of winning of 81.3%. That is an overall record of 26 wins and 6 losses.
Those numbers are greatly propped by home team statistics. If the home team can take game 5, the likelihood of winning moves up to 95.5%. Only once in 22 tries as the home team failed to win the Cup under these circumstances.
It does not seem to significantly matter if the road team grabs the 3-2 series lead. It's only happened 10 times in Stanley Cup finals history. The road team's series record - an uninspiring 5 wins and 5 losses.
History tells us . . . home ice is very much an advantage in the Stanley Cup finals.
The numbers do improve when you take all playoff rounds into account. Then the visiting team's chances rise 75.6%, which is still a ways from the home team's 83.5% likelihood of winning the series.